Australian Open Betting: Unseeded Rose Collins is in with more than a shout as the fairytale continues

Petra Kvitova – Danielle Rose Collins (Thursday 03.00)

Well, alas Barty never really showed up in her quarterfinal, so I was no way near my bet on the Australian to take at least a set.

Question is whether Kvitova’s win was never in any danger because she was awesome or because Barty was a bit more handicapped by an injury that she let on?

She pulled out of the doubles-tournament before that match against Sharapova which she then ended up winning but only after close to 2.5 hours. Perhaps that was all a little bit too much.

Most likely we will never know but at least I got a win on Collins who turned 0-1 into a 2-1 win against Pavlyuchenkova.

It is the first time ever she has won a match in a Major and now she is in the semi-final. For some, the occasion can get a little bit too much, but I don’t think that will be the case here.

And that's it for the first set!@petra_kvitova with a dominating first set as she beats @anisimovaamanda in the first set, 6-2.#AusOpen #WAOW pic.twitter.com/1AxFiyG73C

— FOX Sports LIVE! (@FSAsiaLive) January 20, 2019

Of course, Kvitova has far more routine in these matches but the American seems absolutely fearless. She kicks and screams, she acts out, shouts at anyone and anything not least to animate herself.

On top of that, she is 25 after all so it is not like it’s her first time at the Proms. Last year she reached the semi-final in Indian Wells after going through the qualifiers and won three 3-setters along the way, so physically she is up for it.

As I wrote yesterday Kvitova has never won five matches on the trot at a Major without dropping a set. She has now, but can she make it six? I stick my neck out for Collins to at least claim a set during the match.

First, because she has been playing well. Secondly, because she knows she can go toe-to-toe with Kvitova. They opened the year by playing in Brisbane on 1 January and that is a match both remember vividly.

It took Kvitova three hours to win 6-7 7-6 6-3 in a massive fight. Speaking of which…does that make odds 4.25 on there being a tie break in this encounter worth taking on?

The way she has played her tennis so far I doubt very much that Collins will go down without a fight and even though it seems likely that Kvitova will come through, it also seemed most likely that 2nd seed Angelique Kerber would beat Collins and not lose by 6-2 6-0.

Karolina Pliskova – Naomi Osaka (Thursday 04.30)

Osaka obviously didn’t lose to Svitolina as suggested yesterday in this column but at least the alternative came through with Osaka winning in two sets.

It looks like the Japanese has found her groove after a couple of tough obstacles on the way, and with a gun to my head, I would choose her as winner her.

The only reason Pliskova is standing in the semi-final is because of a colossal break down from Serena Williams. Serena was winning 5-1 in the decider and had four match points before losing.

It is not as easy as it sounds beating an injured opponent so hats off for Pliskova, but if she can experience that amount of trouble against Serena, she will have problems against Osaka, if the latter has found her stride.

But I don’t have a gun to my head so I won’t point to a winner, I found it too open but instead, I will risk a small wager on the under-market.

They met twice in 2018 and Osaka won in Indian Wells by 6-2 6-3, while Pliskova won in Tokyo by 6-4 6-4.

Since I assume Osaka has had her share of 3-setters this time around I think the price on no more than 21 games looks good.  

Best bets:

1 point Collins +1.5 sets against Kvitova at 2.14 1 point under 21.5 games Pliskova/Osaka at 2.02