Texas Hold’Em Poker Odds and Statistics to Make You a Better Player

November 24, 2016

Premium Hands

Who doesn’t love looking down at their cards and seeing high pocket pairs or that A-K looking right back at them? However, waiting for these premium hands can slow your game down to snail mode, as only 2.1% of hands are premium hands in poker.

The coin-flip

When a player had a pocket pair and another has two over-cards, this is essentially a coin-flip with regards to odds, as it’s pretty even. Odds change slightly if the over cards are suited, which means that the pair wins up to 54% if they’re suited and up to 57% if they’re not.

The illusion of suited cards

We see suited cards and automatically we want to play our 9-4 suited. Keep in mind that suited cards only improve your hand by 2.5%, so don’t be fooled again!

Flopping a pair

32.43% are the chances of making a pair on the flop. That doesn’t mean you should be playing any two cards, as the same odds apply for players with a higher hole cards.

On a flush draw!

Your chances of making a flush after the flop when on a flush draw are at 34.97%! It’s a great feeling when you’re on a flush draw on the flop, and one third of the times, you’ll make the hand!

Hitting the board

This term is used when you tell other players you’ve got something without revealing your hole cards. Your chances of hitting the board on the river are almost 50%.

“I couldn’t fold, I had an up & down straight draw on the flop!”

An up and down straight draw, or an open ended straight draw means that you have eight cards that can complete your straight. You’ll complete your straight 31.5% of the time on the river – and what a sweet feeling that is!

Runner runner!

This is when you need two specific cards to make the desired hand. The chances of that happening are ultra slim, but anything is possible. It’s a 0.3% chance of getting both your desired cards, but if you hit one, your chances increase to 4.55% of hitting the other.

Hitting two pair on the flop

2% is the statistic that you hit make two pairs on the flop, considering that you have different cards in the hole.

Beware of the walking sticks, a.k.a Pocket Jacks

As great as they might look in the hole, pocket jacks are dangerous. Why you ask? Because the chances of a higher card showing up on the flop is at 52%.

It’s all about the kicker

If your pair matches your opponent’s paid but your kicker is weaker, you will win 1/4 of the time, or 24%.

Two Pairs, Over-Pair

If you have a higher two pair than your opponent, your hand will win 80% of the time. With that in mind, be aware of the betting patterns and bet sizes, if you witness big raises, your two pair might be trapped.

Suited connectors

Suited connectors are a joy to look at. They give more options to the player holding suited connectors but they’re vulnerable to over-pairs, but not all suited connectors are worth playing. An over-pair will beat suited connectors around 80% of the time.

Pocket Pairs

The chances of being dealt pocket pairs are at 6%, or once every 17 hands! So be sure to have a clear strategy of how to play your pocket pairs.

Gutshot or inside straight draw

This is a hand not really worth chasing, as it only materialises 9% of the time. You will only have 4 cards that can make your straight, so be careful of how many chips you put in the pot.

“I love playing suited cards, in case I flop a flush.”

Flopping a flush has a very slim chance of happening, with 0.8%. While looking pretty, they are misleading and a cause of lost chips. That’s why it’s a general rule to fold 80-90% of hands when playing poker.

The power of a full house

When having two pair, the chances of making a full house are at 16.74% but when you have three of a kind, your odds of making a full house improve greatly, shooting up to 33.4%.

High vs Low cards

If you tried to make a play with the attempt of stealing the pot or are playing small ball poker (playing a wider set of starting hands) and up against a monster, like A-J, A-Q, or A-K, you’ll still have a 35% chance of winning the hand. 

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