Michael Reid – Opta: Man Utd – Case of the Defence

MANCHESTER United are facing a lot of shots. That fact has been well documented of late. It’s been cited as a large part of the reason they look set to struggle to qualify for next season’s Champions League – as they currently lie 6th, 11 points adrift of a Champions League place, even if England get a 5th spot next term.

But just how bad is it? Well, the simple truth is that only Sheffield United – the division’s bottom side – have faced more shots per game on average than Man Utd in the Premier League this season.

Premier League 2023-24	Games	Shots Faced	Per Game
Sheffield United	31	560	18.1
Manchester United	31	554	17.9
Luton Town	32	539	16.8
West Ham United	32	531	16.6
Burnley	32	494	15.4
Brentford	32	476	14.9

Since the New Year, it is even more alarming – the Red Devils are well clear of any side in Europe’s big-five leagues for how many shots they are allowing their opponents: a whopping 23 per game in 2024 – with no other club on 20 or above.

 

Big-Five Euro Leagues 2024	Games	Shots Faced	Per Game
Manchester United	11	253	23.0
SV Darmstadt 98	12	236	19.7
Sheffield United	11	212	19.3
TSG Hoffenheim	12	219	18.3
Brentford	13	227	17.5
Chelsea	10	173	17.3

In fact, Man Utd have faced 20 or more shots in eight of their last nine Premier League games (in the other, vs Fulham in February, they kept the Cottagers down to 17 shots, albeit in a 2-1 defeat). Their most recent match – a 2-2 draw with Liverpool – saw their opponents amass 28 shots, the most by any visiting side at Old Trafford on record (from 2003-04) in the league.

Quite astonishingly, the 554 shots they have now faced in the Premier League in 2023-24 is already their most ever in a single campaign since Opta have records available for this (from 2003-04).

Man Utd – Premier League since 2003-04	Games	Shots Faced	Per Game
2023/2024	31	554	17.9
2021/2022	38	511	13.4
2011/2012	38	506	13.3
2018/2019	38	496	13.1
2012/2013	38	485	12.8
2022/2023	38	481	12.7

All that considered, it’s a damning statistic for Erik ten Hag, now in his second season in charge, but facing questions about this very problem.

Ultimately, while they are still sixth in the table, Man Utd have conceded more goals than they have scored this season, a clear consequence of the amount of chances they are giving up to their opponents. Not since 1989-90 have the club finished a league season with a negative goal difference.

 

But as expected goals (xG) has taught us, not all shots are equal, but facing as high a quantity of shots as Man Utd are does also increase the likelihood of them conceding goals – they rank 3rd-highest in the Premier League this season for xG against per match, behind only promoted sides Luton and Sheffield United, both of whom are presently in the relegation zone.

Premier League 2023-24	Games	Shots Faced	xGA	xGA/Game
Luton Town	32	539	65.4	2.04
Sheffield United	31	560	61.3	1.98
Manchester United	31	554	58.2	1.88
West Ham United	32	531	58.2	1.82
Burnley	32	494	57.9	1.81
Newcastle United	31	429	53.7	1.73

But there is some better news for Manchester United. Yes, they may be facing a frightening number of shots on their goal, but the average xG of these shots ranks fourth-lowest in the division – telling us that while they are facing a high quantity of chances, the quality of these is relatively low.

Premier League 2023-24	Games	Shots Faced	xGA	xG/Shot Faced
Arsenal	31	259	21.6	0.083
Brentford	32	476	49.0	0.103
Everton	31	426	44.7	0.105
Manchester United	31	554	58.2	0.105
Chelsea	30	424	45.4	0.107
Nottingham Forest	32	431	46.3	0.108

And perhaps because the quality of opportunities they are giving away are, by and large, not too high, it has meant that the opposition have massively underperformed their xG when facing Man Utd – the Red Devils have conceded an astonishing 12 fewer goals than their xG would suggest they should have this season – almost twice as many as any other side.

Premier League 2023-24	Games	Goals Conceded	xGA	xGA Diff.
Manchester United	31	46	58.2	-12.2
Liverpool	31	30	36.5	-6.5
Tottenham Hotspur	31	45	51.1	-6.1
Fulham	32	51	55.3	-4.3
Wolverhampton Wanderers	31	49	52.1	-3.1
Everton	31	42	44.7	-2.7

Is this sustainable? Erik ten Hag, publicly at least, is defiant, bullish even about his defence. Man Utd have become accustomed to the chaos of their matches – end-to-end action akin to a basketball match rather than football. Their defenders, and their goalkeeper, are now well practiced in the art of chaos defending. Only five sides have conceded fewer goals and kept more clean sheets than Man Utd in the Premier League this season. They mitigate the damage of facing so many shots as best they can.

But other statisticians may have another view: that this level of opposition underperformance simply cannot continue.

Man Utd are 6th in the Premier League. It is below expectations for a side that came 3rd last season. But who knows just how much lower they would be had they conceded closer to their expected figure in the league this term.

ten Hag may be defiant in public, but in private he must know that, with Jim Ratcliffe now watching, his job may depend on him putting out a few statistical fires.

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