Arnold Palmer Invitational betting preview: Fitzpatrick a good fit for Bay Hill

WHAT would Arnold Palmer make of the current state of golf? It’s a question worth pondering as the PGA Tour heads to the event which honours the great man, his legacy and his fondness for iced tea and lemonade.

 

Conventional wisdom has it that Palmer would have been appalled by the mire the game has descended into, that he’d be disappointed by the fractured nature of it and the outright antipathy between many of the leading players. That cosy notion tends to assume that Palmer would have been on the side of the PGA Tour.

 

It might not have been so straightforward, however. Consider that in 1968 there was a revolution that led to the creation of a players association, forcing the PGA of America from its complacency, citing notions of the players being “indentured servants”. Palmer was more conflicted by the battle than Jack Nicklaus, who was a chief instigator, but he was ultimately a willing part of it.

 

Also recall the 1983 rebellion, when Palmer and Nicklaus were genuinely in-tune when taking on PGA Tour commissioner Deane Beman. The pair even planned and plotted the power struggle at Bay Hill itself.

 

And remember that Palmer’s manager was Mark McCormack, the man who more or less invented modern sports management and one who was openly baffled by anyone who didn’t chase big bucks. He once said of Jose Maria Olazabal: “Strange guy. Doesn’t seem interested at all in the money he could be making.”

 

The Spaniard was unable to play in 1996 because of a career-threatening injury and he is said to have returned a cheque to Titleist with a note saying: “I have not played all season. I cannot accept your money when I have not earned it.” Never mind Palmer, what would Olly have made of the current money-grubbing state of affairs?!?

 

Enough of the speculation, what of this week’s action? Times have changed at Bay Hill. A short while ago, Rory McIlroy (in 2018) and Francesco Molinari (in 2019) carded final round 64s to win. They were both very special efforts, both of them best-of-the days by three and two shots respectively, but they were also among many Sunday sub-70 scores.

 

In sharp contrast when Tyrrell Hatton lifted the trophy in 2020 he carded weekend scores of 73-74 and the entire field managed just one sub-70 score in the final two rounds. Bryson DeChambeau triumphed in 2021 with a joint best-of-Sunday 71 and Scottie Scheffler won in 2022 with a fourth round 72 (when only two men broke 70). Last year Kurt Kitayama held a two-shot halfway lead and a pair of 72s at the weekend was enough to claim victory.

 

These scores reflect the difficulty of the Bay Hill test and why it is often said to be “major-like”. It’s a long course, the par-3s are as difficult as any set of short holes outside the majors, the rough tends to be thick, the greens rock-hard and the wind is typically strong and blustery.

 

Last year Xander Schauffele said of it: “The level of difficulty they’re putting up here is real. It’s definitely good prep for a major and definitely gets you, or it should get you, dialled in.” He added that the rough “is just absolutely horrendous – it makes it so difficult – every time you miss the fairway, you’re sitting underground.”

 

Who can pass the examination this week? Here are three to consider.

 

Each Way – Matt Fitzpatrick at 33/1

The Englishman has always enjoyed the tough Bay Hill examination. He’s played the tournament nine times, seven times he’s recorded a top 30 and six of them were T14th or better. In 2017 he spent the first 54 holes in the top three and he was also the third round leader on his way to finishing runner-up in 2019. His current form is not the greatest, but nor is it entirely disastrous – he was T15th in the Phoenix Open a month ago and T21st last week at PGA National. International golfers have enjoyed this event in the past and Fitzpatrick can add to their trophy haul.

 

Each Way – Cameron Young at 33/1

If the American is to land a first win on the PGA Tour you suspect it will be on a test like this one, which demands more of the long game than of his work on the greens. He’s played here twice, finishing T13th on debut in 2022 and adding tenth last year. And his last five starts have included plenty of good golf, too. He was the leader through 54 holes in the Dubai Desert Classic before finishing third, he was eighth in the Phoenix Open, T16th in the Genesis Invitational and then fourth last time out in the Cognizant Classic.

 

Each Way – Erik Van Rooyen at 90/1

He’s done little in two previous visits to Bay Hill (57th-MC) but the South African has never been in better form Stateside. He won last autumn’s Worldwide Technology Championship which is one of nine top 30s in his last 11 starts on the PGA Tour – and his last four visits to Florida have reaped T13th in the 2022 Players’ Championship, tenth at last year’s Valspar Championship and second in the Cognizant Classic that ended on Monday.